When you win, there's no need to rub the loser's face in it. You won after all.
Apparently, the District Government never learned that lesson. Instead, they pulled a proverbial Christian Laettner. Scoring the win, and still stomping the competition in the face.
The back story: DC United has been trying to get a new stadium built in DC for a long time. In 2007 it came close to a deal with former Mayor Adrian Fenty only to see it fall apart. Seven years later the team was back at the negotiating table with Mayor Vincent Gray, and in the waning days of his administration, the team struck a deal with the city. Unfortunately, Gray's successor (Muriel Bowser) was slow to put it in motion. Although Bowser supported the deal, six months into her mayorship she still hadn't acquired a contested parcel of land necessary for construction to begin.
After little progress with Bowser's administration, it's no wonder DC United started to question the sincerity of the District's support for the stadium. The new mayor's promises weren't matched by actions.
So, in swoops Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe. Ever the salesman, he pitched a location in Loudon County for the team. Then, word of the meetings between team officials and Virginia officials leaked to the press.
So, how did the District react? In front of the cameras and in interviews with the press they were blase. Behind the scene, someone clearly lit a fire under Bowser's well-tailored pant-suit.
A few days later, on June 9th, the District held a news conference to announce it had 'sealed' the deal. Leaving aside the obvious question--wasn't the deal already 'sealed'?--how did the city comport itself during the announcement?
With unwarranted (and slightly wacky) braggadocio.
According to Phil Mendelson, the chairman of the city council, the deal was a win because the proposed site in DC didn't look like a cornfield. Fortunately, council member Jack Evans clarified for people wondering what corn had to do with soccer by pointing to the DC blueprints on a nearby easel--"it certainly doesn't look like Loudoun County."
Not sure when Loudoun County started growing corn--isn't that where all the rich people and their horses live?--or when it became a mild invective.
Full disclosure--I would also prefer the new stadium be in DC rather than Loudoun. However...the proper reaction from the city was contrition not chest-pounding. DC United fans have been waiting a long time for their stadium--a lot longer than the city's baseball fans waited for theirs. And, the deal still isn't done. Bowser promised to have the land parcel secured by September, and I hope she manages it. But, it ain't time to stick a fork in it just yet.
Vamos United wherever you land!
Showing posts with label Loudoun county. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Loudoun county. Show all posts
Friday, June 12, 2015
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
What will Negative Net-Migraiton look like in the DMV?
Today's Washington Post has a provocative article about new census data showing that population growth in the region is slowing down. Most of the slow down is attributed to out-migration rather than birth dynamics. Basically, more people are moving out of the region than are moving into it. Population growth hasn't ceased in large part because birth rates are making up the shortfall.
There is, of course, variation within the region. Net migration (number of people moving to a place minus the number of people leaving it) is still positive in parts of the region. DC still has positive net migration. So, too, do Loudoun, Prince Georges, Montgomery, and Prince William Counties. However, the city of Alexandria, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties now have negative net migration.
The Post attributes the shift in large part to "sequestration," which led to cuts in government budgets across the board. Although many municipal leaders hoped the cuts would be restored, most haven't been. And, Virginia localities, where beltway bandits set up shop, took the biggest hit.
The hand-wringing has already commenced. Unlike other parts of the country, the DMV has experienced a largely uninterrupted growth spurt, nearly 20 years by some estimates. Even the recession didn't really slow things down here. In fact, people who lost jobs in other parts of the country often found work in DC--as was the case with one of the out-migrants profiled in the story.
So, what are the consequences of negative net-migration? As with most shifts, there will be winners and losers.
Likely winners?
* The region's commuters might see a small, but measurable improvement on commuter routes.
* So, too, might metro riders. Metro ridership is already down. Factors posited to explain the drop include rising prices, poor reliability, packed trains, more telework, and a reduction in the transportation subsidy for federal workers. Ridership might decrease even more if negative net-migration continues to be a trend. In fact, most migrants to the area have been public transportation-loving millennials. If they opt to go elsewhere, then the trains might not be as packed.
* First time home-buyers might benefit as well. Inventory has been low since the 2008 recession. Indeed, many homeowners put off selling their homes, choosing to wait until housing prices rebounded to their bubble (or near bubble) levels. However, people who lose their jobs, or can't find ones to begin with (see: sequestration) are often willing to take a little less money when they sell.
* The DMV's middle and lower-income residents. They aren't complete winners (see below), but a slow down might make things a wee bit more affordable for people without top dollar incomes. For the last ten years or so most development has been targeted to the luxury market. If those people aren't coming here, developers of newly built apartments and condos might lower their prices. Fewer people and somewhat lower prices also eases the displacement pressure the city's low income residents face.
Likely losers?
* Municipal Tax Coffers. Fewer people means fewer people to tax. And, fewer tax receipts means either tax hikes, or cuts in service. It's hard to predict where tax hikes or cuts would be focused. Most likely, though, there will be more cuts than taxes. And, as a general rule, cuts usually hurt the poor more than the wealthy.
* Home Sellers. People trying to sell their homes in the DMV have been incredibly lucky when compared with the country as a whole. The DMV's housing values didn't fall as much as those in many other parts of the country, and they rebounded more quickly as well. As a result, it's been a sellers market for much of the last 5 years (purchasers at the height of the bubble excepted). With fewer people churning into the city, it will be harder to sell houses, and probably take more time as well.
* The DMV's Hipster Street Cred. After years of being described as 'dowdy,' crime-ridden, wonky, arrogant, and type A, the DMV finally started appearing in all those urban top 10 lists. You know, those lists of the 'Top 10 place to be a hipster,' or the 'Top 10 places to drink craft beer.' That could change if the millennials decide to head elsewhere. What's a hipster wonk to do? I guess they can always go back to yakking about policy over decidedly unhip (gasp) pitchers of beer.
There is, of course, variation within the region. Net migration (number of people moving to a place minus the number of people leaving it) is still positive in parts of the region. DC still has positive net migration. So, too, do Loudoun, Prince Georges, Montgomery, and Prince William Counties. However, the city of Alexandria, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties now have negative net migration.
The Post attributes the shift in large part to "sequestration," which led to cuts in government budgets across the board. Although many municipal leaders hoped the cuts would be restored, most haven't been. And, Virginia localities, where beltway bandits set up shop, took the biggest hit.
The hand-wringing has already commenced. Unlike other parts of the country, the DMV has experienced a largely uninterrupted growth spurt, nearly 20 years by some estimates. Even the recession didn't really slow things down here. In fact, people who lost jobs in other parts of the country often found work in DC--as was the case with one of the out-migrants profiled in the story.
So, what are the consequences of negative net-migration? As with most shifts, there will be winners and losers.
Likely winners?
* The region's commuters might see a small, but measurable improvement on commuter routes.
* So, too, might metro riders. Metro ridership is already down. Factors posited to explain the drop include rising prices, poor reliability, packed trains, more telework, and a reduction in the transportation subsidy for federal workers. Ridership might decrease even more if negative net-migration continues to be a trend. In fact, most migrants to the area have been public transportation-loving millennials. If they opt to go elsewhere, then the trains might not be as packed.
* First time home-buyers might benefit as well. Inventory has been low since the 2008 recession. Indeed, many homeowners put off selling their homes, choosing to wait until housing prices rebounded to their bubble (or near bubble) levels. However, people who lose their jobs, or can't find ones to begin with (see: sequestration) are often willing to take a little less money when they sell.
* The DMV's middle and lower-income residents. They aren't complete winners (see below), but a slow down might make things a wee bit more affordable for people without top dollar incomes. For the last ten years or so most development has been targeted to the luxury market. If those people aren't coming here, developers of newly built apartments and condos might lower their prices. Fewer people and somewhat lower prices also eases the displacement pressure the city's low income residents face.
Likely losers?
* Municipal Tax Coffers. Fewer people means fewer people to tax. And, fewer tax receipts means either tax hikes, or cuts in service. It's hard to predict where tax hikes or cuts would be focused. Most likely, though, there will be more cuts than taxes. And, as a general rule, cuts usually hurt the poor more than the wealthy.
* Home Sellers. People trying to sell their homes in the DMV have been incredibly lucky when compared with the country as a whole. The DMV's housing values didn't fall as much as those in many other parts of the country, and they rebounded more quickly as well. As a result, it's been a sellers market for much of the last 5 years (purchasers at the height of the bubble excepted). With fewer people churning into the city, it will be harder to sell houses, and probably take more time as well.
* The DMV's Hipster Street Cred. After years of being described as 'dowdy,' crime-ridden, wonky, arrogant, and type A, the DMV finally started appearing in all those urban top 10 lists. You know, those lists of the 'Top 10 place to be a hipster,' or the 'Top 10 places to drink craft beer.' That could change if the millennials decide to head elsewhere. What's a hipster wonk to do? I guess they can always go back to yakking about policy over decidedly unhip (gasp) pitchers of beer.
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