Today's Washington Post has a provocative article about new census data showing that population growth in the region is slowing down. Most of the slow down is attributed to out-migration rather than birth dynamics. Basically, more people are moving out of the region than are moving into it. Population growth hasn't ceased in large part because birth rates are making up the shortfall.
There is, of course, variation within the region. Net migration (number of people moving to a place minus the number of people leaving it) is still positive in parts of the region. DC still has positive net migration. So, too, do Loudoun, Prince Georges, Montgomery, and Prince William Counties. However, the city of Alexandria, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties now have negative net migration.
The Post attributes the shift in large part to "sequestration," which led to cuts in government budgets across the board. Although many municipal leaders hoped the cuts would be restored, most haven't been. And, Virginia localities, where beltway bandits set up shop, took the biggest hit.
The hand-wringing has already commenced. Unlike other parts of the country, the DMV has experienced a largely uninterrupted growth spurt, nearly 20 years by some estimates. Even the recession didn't really slow things down here. In fact, people who lost jobs in other parts of the country often found work in DC--as was the case with one of the out-migrants profiled in the story.
So, what are the consequences of negative net-migration? As with most shifts, there will be winners and losers.
Likely winners?
* The region's commuters might see a small, but measurable improvement on commuter routes.
* So, too, might metro riders. Metro ridership is already down. Factors posited to explain the drop include rising prices, poor reliability, packed trains, more telework, and a reduction in the transportation subsidy for federal workers. Ridership might decrease even more if negative net-migration continues to be a trend. In fact, most migrants to the area have been public transportation-loving millennials. If they opt to go elsewhere, then the trains might not be as packed.
* First time home-buyers might benefit as well. Inventory has been low since the 2008 recession. Indeed, many homeowners put off selling their homes, choosing to wait until housing prices rebounded to their bubble (or near bubble) levels. However, people who lose their jobs, or can't find ones to begin with (see: sequestration) are often willing to take a little less money when they sell.
* The DMV's middle and lower-income residents. They aren't complete winners (see below), but a slow down might make things a wee bit more affordable for people without top dollar incomes. For the last ten years or so most development has been targeted to the luxury market. If those people aren't coming here, developers of newly built apartments and condos might lower their prices. Fewer people and somewhat lower prices also eases the displacement pressure the city's low income residents face.
Likely losers?
* Municipal Tax Coffers. Fewer people means fewer people to tax. And, fewer tax receipts means either tax hikes, or cuts in service. It's hard to predict where tax hikes or cuts would be focused. Most likely, though, there will be more cuts than taxes. And, as a general rule, cuts usually hurt the poor more than the wealthy.
* Home Sellers. People trying to sell their homes in the DMV have been incredibly lucky when compared with the country as a whole. The DMV's housing values didn't fall as much as those in many other parts of the country, and they rebounded more quickly as well. As a result, it's been a sellers market for much of the last 5 years (purchasers at the height of the bubble excepted). With fewer people churning into the city, it will be harder to sell houses, and probably take more time as well.
* The DMV's Hipster Street Cred. After years of being described as 'dowdy,' crime-ridden, wonky, arrogant, and type A, the DMV finally started appearing in all those urban top 10 lists. You know, those lists of the 'Top 10 place to be a hipster,' or the 'Top 10 places to drink craft beer.' That could change if the millennials decide to head elsewhere. What's a hipster wonk to do? I guess they can always go back to yakking about policy over decidedly unhip (gasp) pitchers of beer.
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