Are We Asking the Wrong Question about Where Gentrification Happens?

For the most part, when we discuss gentrification we talk about neighborhoods.  Neighborhood X got a yoga studio, or Neighborhood Y got a new Whole Foods.  If multiple neighborhoods gentrify at the same time, we might also talk about its affects on the city as a whole.  But, the city line is usually the spatial perimeter that bounds our discussion. 

But, what if we are asking the wrong question?  What if gentrification is actually a process that affects the nation as a whole, creating gentrifying cities and disinvested cities instead of  gentrifying neighborhoods and disinvested ones?  

At this point, you might be thinking--"What you talkin' about Willis?"  

Well, according to a new study by Rebecca Diamond highlighted on the Washington Post's wonkblog, that is what is happening.  The dual affects we often associate with gentrification--investment in some areas and disinvestment in others--are are national in scope.  To use a locally inspired metaphor, some cities are like Logan Circle while others are like Langley Park. 

Instead of income, however, Diamond uses education to measure gentrification on the national scale, with the key metric being college degrees.

Turns out,  people with college degrees tend to flock to places where there are lots of other college grads.  Over time, you get a sort of path dependency.  A city manages to attract college grads, which in turn attracts more college grads.  This trend also puts upward pressure on salaries, which in turn drive an increase in restaurants, museums, and other cultural fare. Streets get safer too. San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington DC are good examples of this trend.  In the early 1990s, for example, DC recorded over 400 murders.  Last year, it recorded 103, even though the city is much larger today. 

On the flip side, places that don't attract college grads see their relative, and in some cases real status decline.  Their wages are lower and they have fewer amenities.  Crime takes a turn for the worse.  Toledo, Detroit, and Baton Rouge are good examples.


I think Diamond's work is fascinating (if ultimately depressing).  It means Americans are becoming even more segregated (in this case along class lines).   

But, none of this means local-scale gentrification will go away anytime soon.  It is easy to look at 14th Street in DC and see the DMV as a booming metropolis full of good jobs, good eats, plentiful entertainment, and safe streets.  But, someone still has to work in the low wage jobs that clean the office buildings where those good jobs are located, bus the tables at the fancy see-and-be-seen restaurants, wash the beer glasses recycled many times over in hipster bars, and police the drunks that come out of them at night.  Low wage workers aren't teleported in for the job.  They live in the DMV too, and the growing gap between their salaries and those of the folks noshing at Le Diplomate continue to leave its mark.

If you want to see how this plays out in your own world, ask the person who cleans your office building where she lives the next time you get the chance.  Chances are she lives in a suburban, and quite likely exurban location.  By the way, when I asked this question at my workplace, the answer was Gaithersburg.          

Cyclists On My Nerves

I'm coming out of the confession closet today.  Bicyclists get on my nerves. 

What spurs my confession?  Well, it started as many of my posts do, with a Washington Post article.  This one was by John Kelly, a metro columnist.  He wrote to complain about cyclists in downtown DC riding on the sidewalks.  Being John Kelly, he was polite about it.  He wanted to know to know why cyclists are still using sidewalks after the recent construction of hundreds of miles of new bike lanes in the city.  Then, he made a reasonable request that bikers get off the sidewalks (reminding them along the way that biking on the sidewalk is illegal in downtown DC) and start behaving more politely to pedestrians.

Then, lo and behold, Courtland Milloy, the Post's den father/resident curmudgeon weighed in with his own thoughts on the city's cyclists this morning.  He wasn't as polite.  He called the city's cyclists bullies, and returned to a long-running theme of his--that bike lanes are for gentrifiers and there are far better ways for the city to spend its money than helping mostly white millennials get around the city.

I hate to pile on.  I really do.  Well, maybe I enjoy it a bit.  After the US lost to Belgium in the World Cup, I've had trouble showin' the love. But, bikers do annoy me for two reasons. 


Problem 1: The Biker 'tude.  Milloy is right--the city's (and I would add the DMV's) cyclists have as much attitude as an LA biker gang.  For me, though, the metaphor is wrong.  LA biker throw their bellies and beer swilling habits around as a way to show just how 'bad boy' they really are.  In contrast, many (but not all) of the city's cyclists think they are doing God's work.  They are saving the environment and avoiding America's obesity habit.  I'm not a fan of evangelism of any sort, so even if their version of 'God's work' is good, I'll find it annoying because they feel the need to tell me all about it.  And, hey, a Reese Cups feel like God's own manna on the way to my stomach, so there.

By the way, think I'm engaging in hyperbole?  Dan Malouf over at Greater Greater Washington recently argued that bike lanes are good not just for the safety they provide for (bikers and motorists) but also for the political point they make:  "They proclaim loudly and clearly that streets are not merely sewers for car traffic, but fully multimodal public spaces."  Yeah, that's right.  If there aren't bikes on the road, they're poo filled pathways for the unwashed masses also known as motorists.  Moderation, meet Mr. Malouf.  He could use a new friend.   


Problem 2:  Uptown bikers WON'T get on the sidewalk.  That's right, they abide by the law when they are uptown even if it means going 15 miles an hour on a busy street with a speed limit of 35mph at rush hour, in the direction of rush hour traffic.  By the way, sidewalks are a different beast uptown.  With a few exceptions, they are largely empty of pedestrians, so hopping on the sidewalk at rush hour wouldn't jeopardize pedestrians.  Seriously, why is it OK to mess up traffic flow for dozens of people at rush hour?  Their behavior also means I have to do more start/stop to get home.  Yup, worse gas mileage and more emissions all courtesy of my green fellow travelers.   

And, before anyone pipes in that I should 'try it' before making a fuss, I'll just remind folks that not everyone can bike to work.  Some live too far from work.  Others have health problems that make biking out of the question.  Other people need to be able to pick up their kids from far flung daycares, and can't fit a 3 hour commute both ways into the work/family mix.

Let me be clear though--I'm not an obese, bicycle-hatin', gas guzzling driver.  I walk along the Sligo Creek trail 2 or 3 times a week and the cyclists there are mostly model citizens.  They ring their bells when coming up behind me and other pedestrians or they say things like "on your left" so we know to move right.  Maybe because they aren't trying to prove a point, the trail's bikers are more polite.  I'll happily share the road/trail with these guys!   

Change Comes to Downtown Bethesda's Northern Tip

I went for a birthday dinner on the northern edge of downtown Bethesda this weekend.  It looks like change is coming to the more chilled out part of Bethesda proper.

Here are some pics from the corner of Woodmont Avenue and Battery Lane.  A new mixed use complex is coming to what is now a giant pit in the ground framed by some big arse, impressive cranes!   Right now, the bottom floor will be occupied by upscale grocer Harris Teeter with upper floors set aside for rental housingoverpriced apartments for millennials.   

For those not familiar with Bethesda, here's a map, and a wee bit of explanation.  The entertainment district in Bethesda is centered around Bethesda Row (which sits on Woodmont Avenue between Elm St. and Bethesda Ave.).  There's a movie theatre, a Barnes and Noble and several local and national Chains in the area. 

However, if you head north on Woodmont the chain restaurants slowly give way to more unique fare.  It is still a high end area--no doubt about it--but it feels more organic and less contrived than Bethesda Row.  Perhaps the fact that the existing apartments in the area to the northwest are older, low to mid-rise, and sometimes subsidized helps.

But, if the mixed use center set to open up at Woodmont and Battery Lane is any indication, that might change.  Higher density tends to bring more options for eating, drinking, and shopping, but it also tends to bring on the high priced generic.  And, the income level of new arrivals isn't likely to counter that trend.  If there's one thing the DMV's developers won't build these days it is affordable (or even middle class) housing.  It is a luxury or bust market.    

I'll keep taking pics so readers can follow the progress. 

MOCO Map of the Week--Average Household Size by Census Tract

MOCO Map of the Week is back after a short hiatus.  The next couple of maps will look at data on Households in Montgomery County.  Today's map shows the average household size by census tract using 2010 census data.*

The average household size in Montgomery County census tracts ranges from 1.3 to 3.99.  The average for the county as a whole is 2.7.  This is just slightly higher than the average household size for Maryland (2.6) and the DC metro area (2.64).

Two patterns stand out from the map below.  First, most tracts with high average household size are outside the beltway, in exurban areas in the county.  Second, tracts with low average household size tend to be located inside the beltway, or in between I-270 and Rockville Pike, where the majority of the county's multifamily housing is located. 

* Data are from the 2010 Census Summary File 1

Random MOCO Pic of the Day--a little bit of Memphis in MOCO

Elvis has left the building.  In fact, he was at my polling place yesterday!

Fighting for Millennials--City/Suburb edition

City and Suburb have history.  There are slights, fights, outright insults, and more than a fair share of cold shoulders.  So, it probably shouldn't surprise us that they'd fight over millennials as well.

Until recently, however, everyone thought the city had won that battle (many times over).  We're constantly bombarded with stories about millennials' preference for urban hotspots.   

Well, it turns out (according to a recent Washington Post article) that a lot of millennials can't actually afford to live in the city, or can only afford to do so if they shack up dorm style in 1 and 2-bedroom apartments.  And, let's not even discuss group housesmillennial warehouses. Turns out millennials at the upper end of the age bracket are also having trouble 'upsizing' inside the city when they get in a family way.  Two bedroom apartments are in short supply and even more ridiculously expensive than the city's already ridiculously expensive 1-bedrooms.   

What does all of this mean?  Well, we know that millennials are moving into the city at higher rates than any other age group.  But, it turns out they are also the largest age group moving out. 

Who could have seen this coming?  Everyone, it seems, but the stewards of Mayor Gray's 'One City,' who've been busy celebrating the luxurification of the District of Colombia.  It was, after all, Gray's former Director of Planning, Harriett Tregoning who called 14th Street's transformationinto the Champs Elysees"fascinating, anomalous and wonderful for the city!"

But, never fear millennials, neighboring Prince George's County has your back!  After the Washington Post published its article, Eric Olson, a county council member in Prince George's County came a' courtin'!  Turns out PG County has bike trails, some walkable neighborhoods, access to public transportation, and most of all affordable rent. 

I don't have a dog in this fight (I live in MOCO), but I'd hate to see the battle for millennials reduced to a battle over which is better--city or suburb.  The real problem is that the DMV is an expensive place to live, and the closer you get to downtown DC, the more expensive it becomes (with some notable exceptions).  There's also a dearth of affordable housing in the city, and many of its close-in suburbs.  Until that problem gets addressed, the real segregation lines will continue to be economic (and social), not generational. 

Random MoCo Pic of the Day--Old Signs I Love, Splash Park Edition.

I love old signs, and the DMV's inner suburbs are full of them.  Here's my latest find.  Lake Manor Splash Park.  This is possibly the cutest dolphin I've ever seen.